2014 International: Worldwide Car Sales Predictions

Global car sales are predicted to grow by 3 to 4 percent in 2014. China will remain the largest and fastest growing single-country passenger vehicle market.

Bugatti Veyron at Geneva Auto Salon 2013

Car sales predictions for 2014 by the VDA and HIS Automotive (Polk) see the world market for cars and light trucks growing by 3 to 4%. An increase in new passenger vehicle registrations in 2014 is predicted for all major markets with even Europe returning to positive figures. China will continue to be the largest and fastest growing major market but at a slower pace than in recent years.

2014 Car Sales Predictions by IHS Automotive (Polk)

The IHS Automotive (Polk) forecast for global passenger vehicle sales development in 2014 sees the world car market growing by 4% to 78 million units. This compares to growth of 4.3% in 2013, 8.2% in 2012 and 3.5% in 2011.

IHS Automotive (Polk) predicts new passenger vehicle registrations in various world regions to be as follows in 2014:

 2014 (million) 2013 (million)
Western Europe 11.828 11.411
Central & Eastern Europe 4.785 4.551
NAFTA 19.021 18.271
Asia Pacific, Middle East 34.281 33.146
Latin America 6.514 6.114
Africa 1.598 1.524
World 78.027 75.017

Light trucks are included for countries where these are traditionally considered private passenger vehicles.

2014 Car Sales Predictions by the VDA

The Verband der Automobilindustrie (VDA) – a German auto industry association – predicts worldwide car sales to increase by 3% in 2014 to just less than 75 million vehicles.

The VDA predictions for new passenger vehicle registrations in 2014 are as follows:

2014 (million) % Change from 2013
Europe 11.6 2
Russia 2.8 3
USA 16 3
China 17.1 7
Japan 4.2 -4
India 2.7 7
Brazil 3.7 2
World 74.7 3

VDA Predictions for Car Sales in 2014

The VDA expects all major car markets to grow in 2014 with the exception of Japan where the market may contract by around 4%. China will again by the largest single country car market in 2014. China will also be the fastest growing major market although the predicted increase of 7% will be slower than in recent years. The Indian car market, which has been disappointing in recent years, is also predicted to grow by 7% but from a much lower base than in China.

The VDA predicts that car sales in the USA in 2014 will increase by the global average of 3% to just over 16 million vehicles. The European car market is predicted to slowly recover in 2014 with growth of 2% in the European Union but up to 3% in Russia. Slow but positive growth is also predicted for Brazil in 2014.

The VDA considers India, Russia and Brazil as the three main car markets with the most potential for future growth.

The world’s three largest car markets developed as follows during the past five years:

2009 (million) % World Market Share 2014 (million) % World Market Share
Western Europe 13.7 25 11.6 16
USA 10.4 19 15.9 21
China 8.5 15 17.1 23

2009 was of course a very weak year for the US. Similarly, the West European car market should also recover in coming years but at probably at a slow pace.

The VDA expects German car companies to produce 14.7 million cars worldwide in 2014. Car production inside Germany will remain fairly unchanged at 5.47 million vehicles of which almost 80% will be exported.