2025 (Outlook) Germany: Car Sales and Market Forecasts

2025 (Prediction): The VDA forecasts the German passenger vehicle market to grow by only 1% but new battery-electric car sales in Germany will increase by a massive 75%.

2025 (Prediction): The VDA forecasts the German passenger vehicle market to grow by only 1% but new electric car sales in Germany will increase by a massive 75%.
© Volkswagen

Although new passenger vehicle registrations in Germany in 2025 are expected to increase by only 1%, battery-electric car sales are predicted to grow by 75% to 660,000 all-electric cars. Electric car production will increase by 30% but total car production and exports are expected to grow by less than 2%. The VDA expected German carmakers to benefit from the expected increase in battery-electric car sales in Germany and the rest of Europe in 2025.

Predictions for the Car Market in Germany in 2025

2025 (Prediction): The VDA forecasts the German passenger vehicle market to grow by only 1% but new electric car sales in Germany will increase by a massive 75%.
Annual Car Sales in Germany 2019 – 2025 (p=prediction)

The Verbandes der Automobilindustrie (VDA — Association of the Automotive Industry (in Germany) predicts that the total new car market in Germany will expand by a modest 1% to 2.84 million cars in 2025. This will be around 200,000 more cars than in 2024 but still well below the pre-pandemic levels.

In 2024, the total German new car market was only 2,817,331 vehicles strong. The best-selling car brand in Germany was again Volkswagen with the VW Golf the top-selling car model. Volkswagen was the top electric car brand and the Tesla Model Y was the best-selling battery-electric car model in Germany.

Latest German Car Sales Statistics: 2024: Market Overview, Brands, Models, Electric Cars; 2023-2007.

Forecasts: Electric Car Sales and Production in Germany in 2025

Annual Electrified Car Sales in Germany of BEVs and PHEV 2025 to 2013
Annual Electrified Car Sales in Germany of BEVs and PHEV

New European Union regulations requiring a sharp drop in CO2 emission by new cars produced, will force European carmakers to build and sell far more battery-electric vehicles in 2025 to compensate for pollution caused by petrol and diesel cars. In Germany, the average CO2 emissions of new cars sold in 2024 increased for the second consecutive year meaning a huge change will be necessary in market behavior, or producers (and ultimately buyers) will face big fines.

As a result, the VDA forecasts that electrified car sales in Germany in 2025 will increase by 53% to 873,000 vehicles. The largest share will be in battery-electric vehicles (BEV) with a 75% increase in sales to 666,000 all-electric cars. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) sales will increase by 8% to 207,000 cars. Fuel cell cars (FCEV / Brennstoffzelle) will remain insignificant.

This will require quite a shift in the German new car market. Electric sales in Germany in 2024 contracted by 27.4% to only 380,609 electric cars for a market share of only 13.5% compared to 18.4% in 2023.

Forecasts: Germany Car and Electric Vehicle Production and Exports in 2025

Vehicle production by German carmaker: domestic and foreign factories
Vehicle production by German carmaker: domestic and foreign factories

Despite very high costs in Germany, the VDA expects German carmakers to benefit from the expansion in the German, European, and global car markets in 2025. Domestic car production in Germany is predicted to grow by 1% to 4.2 million passenger vehicles. Car production of German brands in foreign factories is predicted to grow fast by 2% to 9.7 million vehicles.

Car exports from Germany in 2025 are predicted to increase by 2% to 3.2 million vehicles or a 77% export quota.

The VDA is more positive on the prospects of the German car industry to benefit from an increase in battery-electric car production. Despite weaker electric car sales in Germany and Europe in 2024, global sales increased by a quarter, and a record number of electrified cars were produced in Germany in 2024.

Annual Electrified Car Production in Germany (BEV & PHEV) graphic from 2015 to 2025
Annual Electrified Car Production in Germany (BEV & PHEV)

The VDA expects domestic production of electric cars in Germany to increase by 24% in 2025 (BEV: 1.39 million all-electric cars, +30%, and PHEV: 330,000 cars, +2%). Overall, 1.7 million electric cars are likely to be manufactured in Germany in 2025 to consolidate its position as the world’s second-largest production location for electric cars — some distance behind China.

2025 Car Sales Forecasts:

More German Car Sales Statistics for 2024

Latest German Car Sales Statistics: 2024: Market Overview, Brands, Models, Electric Cars; 2023-2007.

About the author:

Henk Bekker

Henk Bekker is a freelance writer with over 20 years of experience in online writing. His best-selling cars website has been reporting car sales statistics since 2008 with classic car auction prices focusing on the most expensive automobiles sold at public auctions in the past decade. He also owns the travel websites European-Traveler.com and Lake Geneva Switzerland. Henk holds an MBA from Edinburgh Business School and an MSc in Finance from the University of London.