For full-year 2020, a fall of 25% in new car sales in the EU is predicted in a revised forecast by the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA).
The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) has radically revised its 2020 forecast for passenger car registrations down to about -25% in light of the major economic crisis facing the auto industry due to COVID-19. In January 2020, the ACEA predicted only a moderate 2% contraction in car sales for the full year 2020. This effectively means that the industry association expects car sales in the European Union to tumble by more than 3 million from 12.8 million units in 2019 to some 9.6 million units this year.
Europe New Car Sales Forcast 2020
Following the first shockwaves of the crisis between mid-March and May 2020, the EU market has contracted by 41.5% so far this year. This situation is expected to ease to a certain extent in the coming months as lockdown and containment measures are lifted throughout the region.
Lower Car Sales Forecasted for 2020 in Europe
In terms of new passenger vehicle registration volumes, ACEA’s forecast for 2020 represents the lowest number of new cars sold in the European Union since 2013. In 2013, the automobile industry had come through six consecutive years of decline in the aftermath of the 2008-2009 financial crisis. It was followed by six years of growth in car sales in Europe.
In terms of percentage change, the bleak outlook represents the sharpest drop ever witnessed by Europe’s automobile sector.
Changes in EU car sales in percentage change since 2010:
- -5.6% in 2010
- -1.6% in 2011
- -8.2% in 2012
- -1.4% in 2013
- +5.6% in 2014
- +9.3% in 2015
- +6.8% in 2016
- +3.4% in 2017
- +0.2% in 2018
- +1.2% in 2019
ACEA Hopes For Government Incentives
“ACEA maintains hope that this dramatic scenario can be mitigated through fast and strong measures by the EU and national governments,” stated ACEA Director-General, Eric-Mark Huitema.
“Given the unprecedented collapse in sales to date, purchase incentives and scrappage schemes are urgently required right across the EU to create much-needed demand for new cars. In the interest of our industry and the wider EU economy, we are calling for the necessary political and economic support – both on the EU as well as the member state levels – in order to limit the damage to production and employment over the months to come.”
The German government particularly shocked the automobile industry by refusing tax incentives for regular petrol and diesel cars but increasing the incentives for electric cars, which the German car industry are still unable to supply.
European New Car Market in 2020
Sales and Market Analysis:
- March – by country, by brand, electric cars
- April – by country
- May – by country
- June – forecast for full-year 2020